Carbon Emission Intensity Characteristics and Spatial Spillover Effects in Counties in Northeast China: Based on a Spatial Econometric Model

Abstract

Under the “double carbon” target, it is important to reduce carbon emissions in each region. Using exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), the center of gravity method, and spatial econometric models, we analyzed the characteristics and spatial spillover effects of carbon emission intensity in counties in Northeast China from 2000 to 2020 and made recommendations to the government for more reasonable carbon reduction strategies in order to achieve sustainable development. The results were as follows: (1) Since 2000, the carbon emission intensity in Northeast China has increased after first declining, and the carbon emission intensity in the western and northern regions of Northeast China has increased faster than Northeast China’s average. (2) After 2000, the spatial aggregation of carbon emission intensity has improved in Northeast China. (3) Northeast China’s carbon emission intensity has a positive spatial spillover effect. Through the feedback mechanism, the growth in population size, the rise in economic development level, the level of industrialization as well as the rise in living standard, the land use structure dominated by arable land and construction land, and the increase in urbanization level in the region will cause the carbon emission intensity in the surrounding areas to increase. An increase in public expenditures leads to a decrease in carbon emission intensity in the adjacent area. (4) When the vegetation cover exceeds its threshold value, it can have a larger inhibitory influence on carbon emission intensity. To summarize, each county in Northeast China is a carbon emission reduction community, and policymakers must consider the spatial spillover effect of carbon emission intensity when developing policies.