Exploring cost-effective transitions to fossil independent transportation in the future energy system of Denmark

Abstract

In this paper, in the light of national targets of a fossil independent future Danish energy system, cost-effective deep decarbonisation solutions in transportation have been explored under base-, alternative technical-, and policy scenarios in the TIMES modelling environment. The TIMES-DK model was further developed to concurrently represent all emerging transport technologies (ETTs) in road- and off-road transport applications, disaggregated transport technologies and service demands segmentation to capture consumers preferences and heterogeneity, and to endogenise fuel infrastructures. The model runs optimise the societal surplus in between 2010 and 2050. There is a particular focus on the role of gas in transport. The results reveal that in between 2020 and 2040, natural gas (NG) could cost-efficiently serve as a transition fuel. Decarbonisation pace and fuel infrastructure assumptions were found to have a large impact on the NG adoption levels. This study showed that the combined use of liquid biofuels (mainly biomethanol), upgraded biogas, electricity, and hydrogen fuels would deliver cost-effective deep decarbonisation by 2050; however, their various decarbonisation roles vary within and across transport segments. Depending on the decarbonisation pace, a marginal CO2 abatement cost of 419–549 €/ton (or 1–1.29 €/L gasoline) is required by 2050 in Denmark. The results also showed that 25% and 30% cost reductions of BEVs and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs), compared to our central cost assumptions, would increase their respective adoption by 36% and 66% towards 2050. They show high market shares particularly in the medium size segment than in the small and large segments. Competition for limited biomass resources coupled with higher fuel demand results in adoption of ETTs.