Exploring a multilevel approach with spatial effects to model housing price in San José, Costa Rica

Abstract

A multilevel model of the housing market for San José Metropolitan Region (Costa Rica) was developed, including spatial effects. The model is used to explore two main questions: the extent to which contextual (of the surroundings) and compositional (of the property itself) effects explain variation of housing prices and how does the relation between price and key covariates change with the introduction of multilevel effects. Hierarchical relations (lower level units nested into higher level) were modeled by specifying multilevel models with random intercepts and a conditional autoregressive term to include spatial effects from neighboring units at the higher level (districts). The random intercepts and conditional autoregressive models presented the best fit to the data. Variation at the higher level accounted for 16% of variance in the random intercepts model and 28% in the conditional autoregressive model. The sign and magnitude of regression coefficients proved remarkably stable across model specifications. Travel time to the city center, which presented a non-linear relation to price, was found to be the most important determinant. Multilevel and conditional autoregressive models constituted important improvements in modeling housing price, despite most of the variation still occurring at the lower level, by improving the overall model fit. They were capable of representing the regional structure and of reducing sampling bias in the data. However, the conditional autoregressive specification only represented a limited advance over the random intercepts formulation.