Exploratory Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis (ESTDA) of Dengue and its association with climatic, environmental, and sociodemographic factors in Punjab, India

Abstract

Routine health data is rich in information but underutilised for research in Low and Middle-Income countries. The present study was carried out to understand spatiotemporal patterns of dengue and its association with risk factors using routine data from health and allied sectors. ESTDA included estimation of dengue incidence rates, time series features and correlation coefficients up to the sub-district level. Scatter plots and correlation coefficients were used to identify relationships between covariates. Dengue incidence in 2015–19 was 47.76, 33.64, 52.03, 49.71, and 33.36 per 100,000, respectively, with a mean (SD) age of 34.33 (16.78) years and the majority being males (63.94%). Dengue had significant cross-correlation, non-linear relationships, and spatio-temporal associations with climatic, environmental, and socio-demographic risk factors. Significant autocorrelation of dengue occurrence was present at a lag of one month with seasonal patterns. The reproducible open-source algorithms add value to existing Routine Health Information Systems, and the findings will enable the development of Spatio-temporal models in future research. The research was done using R version 4.1.0.