Exploratory Spatial Analysis of Social Vulnerability and Forest Fire Risk in the Pinhal Interior Sul (Central Portugal)

Joana Farinha,Luca Antonio Dimuccio,Lúcio Cunha

doi:10.3390/su14053010

Joana Farinha, Luca Antonio Dimuccio + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/su14053010

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Abstract

Mainland Portugal is a Mediterranean country, particularly known for the recurrence of forest fires in terms of burnt areas, losses, and damage. The central Portugal administrative area has been in a “stage” of prominence for this dangerous phenomenon, with the sub-region Pinhal Interior Sul being one of the most critical territories. In addition to the manifestation of the dangerous process itself, it is important to state the importance of vulnerability, which has been relatively ignored in the definition of public policies in terms of spatial planning. Vulnerability concerns the way people and their assets are exposed to forest fires (as they represent the main targets of their harmful consequences), as well as how they are affected by, resist, and recover from them. This paper investigates only one of the components of vulnerability—social vulnerability—in terms of demographic, cultural, socio-economic, and infrastructural conditions to establish a comparative analysis among the parishes of the sub-region Pinhal Interior Sul (in particular, between the more urban and rural ones in each municipality). In the studied area, the high values of social vulnerability reinforce the high hazard level. At the municipality level, it is possible to conclude that the population living in more markedly rural and peripheral parishes is more vulnerable to forest fires than those living in the more urban conditions.

Highlights

Due to the Mediterranean climate in which mainland Portugal is located [1–4], it is one of the most affected southern European countries in terms of forest fires [5–13]
The current study focuses on the relevance of social vulnerability at the parish scale, from which it is possible to highlight its spatial differentiation in a way that enables adequate social intervention when it comes to public policies
The methodological approach used here to analyse the social vulnerability of the sub-region Pinhal Interior Sul at the parish scale, and the cartographic results obtained, are aimed at helping to define and put into practice policies that envisage the mitigation of risk in this territory

Summary

Introduction

Due to the Mediterranean climate in which mainland Portugal is located [1–4], it is one of the most affected southern European countries in terms of forest fires [5–13]. The central region possesses a considerable probability of forest fires [15,16], usually resulting in substantial losses (e.g., primary and second homes, businesses, forests, and agriculture), in addition to the loss of human lives. This scenario proves to be increasingly worrying in the context of climate change which, for the near future, indicates a significant increase in temperatures and a reduction in rainfall for the Mediterranean regions wherein Portugal resides [13,17]. The high vulnerability of its territory, along with a decreasing and constantly ageing population framed in rural and abandoned landscapes with an essential forest cover [12,23,24], has transformed Pinhal

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