Explaining the Success of the People’s Party: An Analysis of South Korea’s 2016 Legislative Elections

Abstract

What explains the success of the upstart People’s Party in the 2016 Korean National Assembly election? Through preelection survey data, this article first identifies the demographic factors corresponding with support for the People’s Party and how this differs from preexisting parties. Next, it elaborates on how the two‐vote electoral system may have benefitted the People’s Party by encouraging voters to cast a party list vote for the party while casting a district vote for one of the larger parties, consistent with strategic voting. Further analysis shows that People’s Party supporters that intended to vote for their party’s district candidate, and thus cast a sincere rather than strategic district vote, were less likely than other partisans to split their votes across two parties.