Explaining Support for Political Violence: Grievance and Perceived Opportunity

Karin Dyrstad,Solveig Hillesund

doi:10.1177/0022002720909886

Abstract

What explains support for violence against the state? The surge in survey-based studies in (former) conflict areas has improved our understanding of the determinants of armed conflict. Yet, the potential interaction between grievances and political opportunity structure has received little attention in microlevel studies. Integrating common arguments from the civil war literature with the political behavior tradition, this article argues that perceived political efficacy, a central component of the political opportunity structure, moderates the association between individual and group grievance and people’s support for political violence. It represents a first individual-level test of the argument that perceived political opportunity structure and grievances combine to explain internal armed conflict. Using original survey data from Guatemala, Nepal, and Northern Ireland (2016), we find robust empirical evidence that support for violence increases with perceived grievance and decreases with political efficacy; and some evidence of an interaction between the two.

Highlights

What explains support for violence against the state? The surge in survey-based studies in conflict areas has improved our understanding of the determinants of armed conflict
We argue that dissatisfaction with the material and political situation and evaluations of the effectiveness of ordinary political channels for peaceful opposition work together to shape individual support for political violence
We find some evidence that the grievance—support relationship is conditional on political efficacy

Summary

Introduction

What explains support for violence against the state? The surge in survey-based studies in (former) conflict areas has improved our understanding of the determinants of armed conflict. This argument has a microlevel corollary, which has received little attention in the conflict literature: for people motivated by grievance, their perceptions of the political opportunity structure could help determine what form of contention they support. Objective political exclusion is among the most consistent motive-based predictors of internal armed conflict, and there is some microlevel evidence that perceptions of low political status compared to other groups increases support for violence.

Results

Conclusion