Explainable Data-Driven Method Combined with Bayesian Filtering for Remaining Useful Lifetime Prediction of Aircraft Engines Using NASA CMAPSS Datasets

Abstract

An aircraft engine is expected to have a high-reliability system as a safety-critical asset. A scheduled maintenance strategy based on statistical calculation has been employed as the current practice to achieve the reliability requirement. Any improvement to this maintenance interval is made after significant reliability issues arise (such as flight delays and high component removals). Several publications and research studies have been conducted related to this issue, one of them involves performing simulations and providing aircraft operation datasets. The recently published NASA CMAPPS datasets have been utilised in this paper since they simulate flight data recording from various measurements. A prognostics model can be developed by analysing these datasets and predicting the engine’s reliability before failure. However, the state-of-the-art prognostics techniques published in the literature using these NASA CMAPPS datasets are mainly purely data-driven. These techniques mainly deal with a “black box” process which does not include uncertainty quantification (UQ). These two factors are barriers to prognostics applications, particularly in the aviation industry. To tackle these issues, this paper aims at developing explainable and transparent algorithms and a software tool to compute the engine health, estimate engine end of life (EoL), and eventually predict its remaining useful life (RUL). The proposed algorithms use hybrid metrics for feature selection, employ logistic regression for health index estimation, and unscented Kalman filter (UKF) to update the prognostics model for predicting the RUL in a recursive fashion. Among the available datasets, dataset 02 is chosen because it has been widely used and is an ideal candidate for result comparison and dataset 03 is employed as a new state-of-the-art. As a result, the proposed algorithms yield 34.5–55.6% better performance in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) compared with the previous work. More importantly, the proposed method is transparent and it quantifies the uncertainty during the prediction process.