Experts’ assessments of migration scenarios between the Middle East & North Africa and Europe

Abstract

We describe data collected among 138 migration experts about the repercussions of scenarios of social change on migration between the Middle East & North Africa and Europe, during the period 2021–2030. Scenarios include changes in the cultural, demographic, economic, and political determinants of migration in sending and receiving countries. Assessments focus on the change in the number of family, work, and return migrants, the number of refugees, and the likelihood of achieving safe, orderly, and regular migration. Experts were at the moment of the survey active in European research centers or European (supra-) national governmental or civil society organizations. The survey features a factorial design, which allows for identifying a causal relationship between the experts’ assessments and the scenarios of social change. Our data may be used to estimate projection models of future migration flows, map out what experts consider as critical migration issues for the region, and identify areas of agreement or disagreement between them. As such, our dataset may illuminate decision-making regarding migration policies in Europe and beyond.