Study on the model of optimal refugee movement

Abstract

We set up a refugee migration model based on the improved Network Maximum Flow algorithm. The model depends not only on factors affecting refugee migration movements we have determined, but also the attractiveness of the way countries of the selected route and the restriction of the land and ocean environment to refugees. According to the model, we predict in 2016 the flow of refugees is about 163 million. Introduction We investigated the background of the formation of the European refugee crisis. In recent years, the wars led by the US, European countries actively involved in West Asia and North Africa as well as other factors, resulted in the unrest situation in West Asia, North Africa with tribal, ethnic and religious internal conflicts, thereby generating a large number of international refugees across the borderlines. With the geopolitical relations of approaching to Europe, a growing number of refugees in West Asia and Africa came through the Mediterranean, overland South-Eastern Europe and inroad into Europe. Since 2014, tens of thousands of West African refugees have been continuing to enter European countries, so the refugee problem gradually into the view of European governments and mainstream society. The basic analysis of the model’s purpose Refugees departed from the Middle East and Africa, then arrived in EU. Before,we have already taken into account personal factors, safety of route, transportation types factors, route selection, countries’ resources capacity. In this model, we need to assess the number of refugees, as well as the rate and point of entry necessary to accommodate their movement. During the migration process, our team conduct improvements in the maximum flow algorithm of the network graph theory. 1) Pose the assumptions (a) Assume that the cities with the opening entrances in a country are projected as many nodes, and these nodes are linked to the same virtual node. The virtual node represents the country; (b) Assume that a fixed mortality exists in the path through the waters and land. (c) Assume that six routes eventually reach the different countries. (d) Assume that the demand of the necessary living resources per capita are same. 2) Establish the Network Model In light of the main departure cities, way cities and arrival cities during refugees’ movements, as well as the routes’ environment, we draw the network diagram of six routes. Among them, we design the cities as the nodes, and the migration route of refugees as the arcs of the network diagram. These arcs indicate the direction of movement of refugees and the capacity of the route. 6th International Conference on Machinery, Materials, Environment, Biotechnology and Computer (MMEBC 2016) © 2016. The authors Published by Atlantis Press 1004 (1)Middle East western Mediterranean Greece (2)Middle East Central Mediterranean Greece (3)Middle East Eastern Mediterranean Greece (4) Middle East West Balkans Greece (5)Middle East Eastern Borders Greece (6) Middle East Albania Greece 3) Build a Resistance Model The weight of each arc of the network represents refugees carrying capacity, the number of accommodating refugees is affected by road environment and a series of factors. When calculating the carrying capacity, we improve it as the resistance of passing the path, namely, a reduction of the amount. (a) Build a model of resistance of the ocean When the refugees leave from the Middle East or Africa to Europe countries they will be affected by the terrestrial environment. Indicated by the Frontex’s data, each year about 3500 people died in the land during the migration process. In the light of the number of terrestrial mortality, migration, and the incidence of the land traffic accidents, we formulate a safety factor of land. Refugee migration routes show that the way countries’ political, economic and social environment and religious beliefs have a certain appeal to refugees, our team formulated a attraction model to show the attraction of the way countries to refugees. We use the environment capacity model to measure a country's degree of resource surplus, which determines whether the country can meet the basic needs of refugees. These two models are likely to make the migration of refugees to abandon the original plan and stay in the way country.