Experience with probabilistic risk assessment in the nuclear power industry

Abstract

Risk has become an important public concern for both nuclear and chemical industries over the years. In order to manage risk in a comprehensive and quantitative manner, the nuclear industry has developed the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach over the past two decades. The chemical industry, on the other hand, has just started its efforts toward the quantification of risk. This paper presents an overview of the experience learned from PRAs for nuclear power plants. It gives a brief historical perspective of the development of PRA in the nuclear industry and reviews the methodology used in most current PRAs. In addition to the discussion of lessons learned, this paper also discusses issues related to PRA methodology that are still under development. Finally, some comments are made on the possibility of use of PRA in the chemical industry.