Expected losses vs earthquake magnitude curves, for seismic risk mitigation and for insurance purposes

Abstract

Nowadays, seismic risk is matter of concern for public authorities and private entities since numerous fatalities and significant economic losses can be caused by a seismic event. In this context, the present study aims to simulate all the possible seismic events that can potentially occur in North-eastern Italy in order to derive the potential economic losses as function of the earthquake's epicenter and magnitude. To this end, an analysis of the residential building stock aimed at developing a suitable taxonomy class for the definition of the structural vulnerability is herein developed and presented. Results are provided in term of loss maps, that show the loss associate di a given earthquake occurring in a specific location. These maps allow risk practitioners to derive for each location a curve showing the behaviors of seismic losses as function of the earthquake magnitude, and represent the first national attempt to represent the seismic susceptibility at local level.