Expansion of the chemotherapy workforce needed for 50% rise in demand expected by 2040.

Abstract

Researchers are forecasting a >50% global increase in patient demand for first-line chemotherapy between 2018 and 2040, a shift that points to an urgent need for an expanded chemotherapy workforce, according to a recent modeling study in The Lancet Oncology.1 The demand is predicted to increase from 9.8 million to 15 million if chemotherapy were to be applied fully in adherence with evidence-based guidelines, according to the study.1 The authors believe the research is the first to estimate how much chemotherapy is needed to address this need on a national, regional, and global level. To calculate the percentage of patients newly diagnosed with cancer who would benefit from chemotherapy, investigators incorporated best practice guidelines, patient characteristics, and cancer stage data from the United States and Australia. They then applied the rates to international estimates of adult and pediatric cancer incidences from 2018 to 2040. Cancers of the lung, breast, and colon are predicted to be the most common cancers requiring chemotherapy in 2040. Researchers estimated the workforce numbers needed to deliver chemotherapy by assuming that each physician saw 150 new chemotherapy patients, which is considered a safe workload. However, this number varies considerably across the world. As a result, their workforce estimates ranged from 32,600 physicians to 97,800 physicians in 2018 to 50,000 physicians to 150,000 physicians in 2040. In addition, estimates can vary because chemotherapy use can differ for many reasons, including patient and clinician preferences, cost, cultural acceptance, and access. The study's lead author, Brooke Wilson, MSc, of the University of New South Wales Sydney in Kensington, and the Collaboration for Cancer Outcomes, Research, and Evaluation at the Ingham Institute for Applied Medical Research in Liverpool, New South Wales, Australia, emphasizes the need for countries and individual institutions to plan and develop strategies that will increase the global chemotherapy workforce. That planning, she says, is imperative to provide safe current and future cancer patient treatment.