Existence of Ideological Drift within the United States Supreme Court: An Analysis of Conservative Majority Votes

Abstract

Ideological drift is the phenomenon in which an actor shifts their original political stance to the left or right of the political spectrum. Previous literature suggests that a liberal-inclined ideological shift occurs in the Supreme Court. However, there has been an absence of research confirming the presence of liberal ideological drift. The focus of this paper determines whether liberal ideological drift is prevalent in liberal justices and also perhaps the most surprising population: Conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the Modern Era (1946- present). We postulated that if a justice serves at least 10 terms, then a decreased frequency of majority conservative votes will be made evident, thus proving a liberal ideological drift. Our empirical findings support our postulation: a majority of conservative justices of the Modern Era have fewer conservative majority votes with the passage of 10 terms or more, therefore indicating an ideological shift to the left. There exist important caveats to our results, these include justices undergoing the acclimation or “freshman” effect (a phenomenon in which a justice will vote in accordance with the appointing president’s ideology). Our findings may provide useful information for the litigant community, advocates and opponents of Supreme Court term limits, and the general public.Keywords: Supreme Court, Supreme Court Justice, Ideological Drift, Liberal Justice, Conservative Justice, Bloc, Majority Opinion, Acclimation Effect, Freshman Effect