Excitability, mixed-mode oscillations and transition to chaos in a stochastic ice ages model

Abstract

Motivated by an important geophysical significance, we consider the influence of stochastic forcing on a simple three-dimensional climate model previously derived by Saltzman and Sutera. A nonlinear dynamical system governing three physical variables, the bulk ocean temperature, continental and marine ice masses, is analyzed in deterministic and stochastic cases. It is shown that the attractor of deterministic model is either a stable equilibrium or a limit cycle. We demonstrate that the process of continental ice melting occurs with a noise-dependent time delay as compared with marine ice melting. The paleoclimate cyclicity which is near 100 ky in a wide range of model parameters abruptly increases in the vicinity of a bifurcation point and depends on the noise intensity. In a zone of stable equilibria, the 3D climate model under consideration is extremely excitable. Even for a weak random noise, the stochastic trajectories demonstrate a transition from small- to large-amplitude stochastic oscillations (SLASO). In a zone of stable cycles, SLASO transitions are analyzed too. We show that such stochastic transitions play an important role in the formation of a mixed-mode paleoclimate scenario. This mixed-mode dynamics with the intermittency of large- and small-amplitude stochastic oscillations and coherence resonance are investigated via analysis of interspike intervals. A tendency of dynamic paleoclimate to abrupt and rapid glaciations and deglaciations as well as its transition from order to chaos with increasing noise are shown.