Abstract

Modern excise policy in the conditions of active transformation of the tobacco market should provide a sufficient level of tax revenues to the budget, regulate the consumption of tobacco products and its alternatives, prevent illicit trafficking in counterfeit and smuggled tobacco products, take into account the development of national tobacco legislation. experience of Community countries in the field of excise tax. Domestic excise policy faces difficult tasks - to ensure the optimal balance between achieving the goals of filling the budget and regulating the consumption of various categories of tobacco products, to support national tobacco producers and ensure public health, to pursue a course of European integration. Excise tax on tobacco products produced on the territory of Ukraine traditionally forms the largest share in the structure of excise taxes, while their very taxation is carried out at specific and ad valorem rates. The purpose of the article is to study the impact of raising the specific excise rate on the receipt of excise tax in the budget. The main changes in the taxation of tobacco products in Ukraine and the consequences for national producers of tobacco and tobacco products are analyzed. In order to study the impact of raising the specific excise tax rate on excise tax revenues to the budget, a forecast model of the dependence of tax revenues from excise tax to the budget on sales of tobacco products and the average excise tax on a pack of cigarettes. The article proposes a plan for a gradual increase in the specific excise tax on tobacco products for 2021-2025. To test the hypothesis, a forecast model for the sale of cigarettes is built, taking into account the increase in the tax burden until 2025. reducing the shadow sector and supporting domestic producers. A further vector of research should be directed towards improving the excise policy to strengthen control over the production and circulation of tobacco products and their electronic labeling.

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