Abstract
Abstract. The objectives of this study were to assess the predictability of exceptionally cold water in the Taiwan Strait (TS) and to develop a warning system on the basis of the scientific mechanism, which is a component of the information technology system currently under development in Taiwan to protect aquaculture against extreme hazards. Optimum interpolation sea surface temperature (SST) data were used to find exceptionally cold water days from January 1995 to May 2017. We found that the SST and wind speed over the TS are low and strong in La Niña winters, respectively. According to tests conducted using relative operating characteristic curves, predictions based on the Oceanic Niño Index and integrated wind speed can be employed at lead times of 60–120 and 0–25 days, respectively. This study utilized these two proxies to develop a possible warning mechanism and concluded four colors of warning light: (1) blue, meaning normal (0 % occurrence probability); (2) cyan, meaning warning (∼ 50 % occurrence probability); (3) yellow, meaning moderate risk (∼ 60 % occurrence probability); and (4) red, meaning high risk (∼ 75 % occurrence probability). Hindcasting winters over the period 1995–2017 successfully predicted the cold water hazards in the winters of 2000, 2008, and 2011 prior to the coldest day by ∼ 20 days.
Highlights
The Taiwan Strait (TS) is a northeast-to-southwest passage, with a length of 300 km and width of 180 km, from the East China Sea to the South China Sea
The results reveal a total of 107 cold water days and 9 cold events likely to trigger cold disasters in the TS
These exceptionally cold water days always occur during La Niña events, and climatological maps show that the sea surface temperature (SST) and wind speed over the TS are extremely low and strong in La Niña winters compared with normal or El Niño winters
Summary
The Taiwan Strait (TS) is a northeast-to-southwest passage, with a length of 300 km and width of 180 km, from the East China Sea to the South China Sea. The strong northeast monsoon reduces the northward transport of the Kuroshio Branch Current, bringing warm and saline water from the western North Pacific. The predominance of the cold China Coastal Current and the weakness of the warm Kuroshio Branch Current resulted in the water temperature of the TS decreasing in the early winter of 2000 (Wu et al, 2007). The strong northeast monsoon in the winter of 2008, associated with La Niña, may drive the cold China Coastal Current to intrude more southward into the southern TS and can even suppress the northward warm Kuroshio Branch Current intruding the TS (Chen et al, 2010; Lee et al, 2014). Trigger a cold disaster in the TS, and to present a feasible warning system with respect to marine hazards around the Penghu Islands
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