Abstract
Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasting is the task of predicting future values of a given sequence using historical SST data, which is beneficial for observing and studying hydroclimatic variability. Most previous studies ignore the spatial information in SST prediction and the forecasting models have limitations to process the large-scale SST data. A novel model of SST prediction integrated Deep Gated Recurrent Unit and Convolutional Neural Network (DGCnetwork) is proposed in this paper. The DGCnetwork has a compact structure and focuses on learning deep long-term dependencies in SST time series. Temporal information and spatial information are all included in our procedure. Differential Evolution algorithm is applied in order to configure DGCnetwork’s optimum architecture. Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) data is selected to conduct experiments in this paper, which has good temporal homogeneity and feature resolution. The experiments demonstrate that the DGCnetwork significantly obtains excellent forecasting result, predicting SST by different lengths flexibly and accurately. On the East China Sea dataset and the Yellow Sea dataset, the accuracy of the prediction results is above 98% on the whole and all mean absolute error (MAE) values are lower than 0.33°C. Compared with the other models, root mean square error (RMSE), root mean square percentage error (RMSPE), and mean absolute percentage Error (MAPE) of the proposed approach reduce at least 0.1154, 0.2594, and 0.3938. The experiments of SST time series show that the DGCnetwork model maintains good prediction results, better performance, and stronger stability, which has reached the most advanced level internationally.
Highlights
Analyzing sea surface temperature (SST), an essential parameter for studying the marine ecosystem and global climate can efficiently help us to explore the ocean conditions and understand the climatic dynamics
In order to solve the task of SST time series prediction, this paper proposes the DGCnetwork model based on deep learning with deep Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and CNN network. e DGCnetwork architecture can adapt by learning the nonlinearity and complexity of SST time series data, which includes multiple GRU layers, one CNN layer, and one full-connected layer
We proceed to show the quantitative and visual results of the proposed DGCnetwork. e results shown in all tables and figures indicate the performance of the model in the validation set. is has been done in concurrence with the widely demonstrated fact, which states, the genuine evaluation for forecasting performance should be based on unseen data not the historical data, which is already seen by the model [31]
Summary
Xuan Yu ,1 Suixiang Shi ,1,2 Lingyu Xu ,1,3 Yaya Liu ,1 Qingsheng Miao ,4 and Miao Sun 2. Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasting is the task of predicting future values of a given sequence using historical SST data, which is beneficial for observing and studying hydroclimatic variability. Most previous studies ignore the spatial information in SSTprediction and the forecasting models have limitations to process the large-scale SST data. A novel model of SST prediction integrated Deep Gated Recurrent Unit and Convolutional Neural Network (DGCnetwork) is proposed in this paper. Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) data is selected to conduct experiments in this paper, which has good temporal homogeneity and feature resolution. E experiments demonstrate that the DGCnetwork significantly obtains excellent forecasting result, predicting SST by different lengths flexibly and accurately. E experiments of SST time series show that the DGCnetwork model maintains good prediction results, better performance, and stronger stability, which has reached the most advanced level internationally Compared with the other models, root mean square error (RMSE), root mean square percentage error (RMSPE), and mean absolute percentage Error (MAPE) of the proposed approach reduce at least 0.1154, 0.2594, and 0.3938. e experiments of SST time series show that the DGCnetwork model maintains good prediction results, better performance, and stronger stability, which has reached the most advanced level internationally
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