Examining the impacts of climate change and political instability on rice production: empirical evidence from Nigeria

Abstract

The Nigerian government is committed to sustaining rice production to meet national demand. Nevertheless, political tension and climate-induced stressors remain crucial constraints in achieving policy targets. This study examines whether climate change and political instability significantly threaten rice production in Nigeria. First, we employed nonparametric methods to estimate the country's rainfall and temperature trends between 1980Q1 and 2015Q4. Second, we employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to examine the effects of climate change and political instability on rice production. The results show that while temperature has an increasing pattern, rainfall exhibits no significant trend. The findings from the ARDL estimate reveal that rice production responds negatively to temperature changes but is less sensitive to changes in rainfall. In addition, political instability adversely affects rice production in Nigeria. We argue that Nigeria's slow growth in rice production can be traced back to the impact of climate change and political tension in rice farming areas. As a result, reducing the overall degree of conflict to ensure political stability is critical to boosting the country's self-sufficiency in rice production. We also recommend that farmers be supported and trained to adopt improved rice varieties less prone to extreme climate events while supporting them with irrigation facilities to facilitate rice production.