Examining the impact of climate change on cereal production in India: Empirical evidence from ARDL modelling approach

Abstract

Agriculture sector is major sufferer of climate change both at a global level as well as at India level. Cereals account for about 92 % of India's total food grain output and climate change has a significant influence on the production of cereals. This study aimed to evaluate the long-term and short-term effects of climatic and non-climatic variables, specifically temperature, precipitation, cereal area, total cropped area, fertilizer consumption, and pesticide consumption, on cereal production in India. The study included annual time series data that covered the period from 1960 to 2018, covering a period of 58 years. Various econometric techniques were employed to examine these relationships. The validity of a long-term and short-term relationship among the relevant variables included in the study was validated by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique and the Johansen cointegration test. The ARDL model's estimation outcomes reveals that input factors such as cereal area became a key factor in rising cereal production, as evidenced by its positive coefficient. Similarly, fertilizer consumption and precipitation had positive effects on production in the long run whereas total cropped area and minimum temperature has little influence over the results of production both in short run as well as long run. Furthermore, the long-term findings were also supported using econometric tools like Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) and Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS). These methods confirmed that variations in cereal production in India were significantly influenced by both climatic factors and agricultural inputs and factors. The study emphasizes the urgency for policymakers to prioritize proactive measures aimed at reducing the adverse impacts of climate change on cereal production in India. This necessitates a comprehensive strategy integrating sustainable practices, technological innovations, and robust policy frameworks to ensure resilient agricultural sectors and sustainable food production.