Examining the Existence of Long-run Initial Public Offering (IPO) Underperformance at Three Different Stock Exchange Markets in Japan

Abstract

This study conducted the examination of the long-run performance of IPO stocks in the Japanese market by measuring the monthly AAR/CAAR of sample IPO stocks. The study did this, so as to investigate whether IPO stocks in the Japanese market outperform in the long-run, as prior research on this phenomenon in the US market (Ritter, 1991; McDonald and Fisher, 1972) had found. The finding is that on the one hand, at TOPIX and TSE-2ND, stocks IPO firms that went public during 2004 to 2011 did not underperform the market in the long-run, as the monthly CAAR of sample IPO stocks on month 36 was not statistically significant. On the other hand, the finding also reveals that at MOTHERS, IPO firms underperformed the market throughout the period between months 2 and 36, and the monthly CAAR of IPO stocks at this market was –30.08 percent on month 36. The implication of this finding for the Efficient Market Hypothesis is that market efficiency held well at TOPIX and TSE-2ND; where during the sampling period abnormal returns could not be achieved and thus the long-run IPO underperformance was unlikely to occur. On the contrary, the departure from market efficiency was observed at MOTHERS: In the long-run, IPO stocks kept experiencing negative abnormal returns, and the existence of the long-run IPO underperformance was found to be significant. Long-run IPO underperformance did not exist, with only one exception: It is only at MOTHERS that the long-run IPO underperformance was observed, whereas at TOPIX and TSE-2ND the phenomenon was not observed.