Ex-Ante Prediction of Disruptive Innovation: The Case of Battery Technologies

Julian Marius Müller,Raphael Kunderer

doi:10.3390/su11195229

Abstract

Battery technologies represent a highly relevant field that is undergoing conversions in the context of, for instance, battery electric vehicles or stationary power storage for renewable energies. Currently, lithium-ion batteries represent the predominant technology that has, however, a considerable environmental impact that could hinder the emergence of sustainable energy systems. Driven by these conversions, several authors claim that potentially disruptive technologies could occur. The concept of disruptive innovation has been highly regarded in research and practice, but has only been successfully regarded from an ex-post perspective. However, without the possibility to establish ex-ante predictions of disruptive innovation, several authors disregard the concept of having significant relevance for practice. In response to this research gap, the present paper attempts to establish an ex-ante prediction of potential disruptive innovation. The method is based on the disruption hazard model by Sood and Tellis, testing seven hypotheses regarding a potential disruption hazard of redox-flow batteries towards lithium-ion batteries. The paper finds that redox-flow batteries could represent a disruptive technology, but this evaluation is limited to an expert evaluation. The authors discuss this finding, as the technical characteristics of redox-flow batteries support its role as a potential disruptive innovation, concluding with implications, limitations as well as suggestions for future research.

Highlights

Following the concept of Christensen [1], disruptive technologies have been highly regarded in technology and innovation management
After gathering personal data from the respondents referring to their position and experience with battery technologies, we addressed hypothesis 1 to 3 within our first set of questions
Regarding Hypothesis 1 (H1) and Hypothesis 2 (H2), we found that 52.4 percent of experts expected a lower attack by pioneers, whereas 47.6 percent assumed an attack from established enterprises

Summary

Introduction

Following the concept of Christensen [1], disruptive technologies have been highly regarded in technology and innovation management. Christensen’s concept describes a paradox: A currently less potent technology is more likely to disrupt an incumbent technology than a currently more potent one. For this paradox, several practical examples have been found, as will be explained in Section 2.1 [2,3,4,5]. Without the possibility of ex-ante prediction of disruptive innovation, Danneels [2] as well as Govindarajan and Kopalle [10] disregard the concept of disruptive innovation to have a significant practical relevance. Ex-ante prediction of disruptive innovation has been scarcely attempted [2,9,10,11]

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion