Abstract
This study examines how climate conditions influence life expectancy in Europe based on the impact of year-to-year temperature variability adjusted for economic changes. By focusing on a narrow range of ambient temperatures, we made the model sensitive to both extreme weather and moderately adverse conditions, such as low-temperature modulation of the winter infection season. Regional trend estimates from 1990 to 2019 were pooled to evaluate the overall relationship. We also assessed climate change impacts from 1979–1982 to 2019–2022 and 1981–2010 to 2041–2070 under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Colder-than-optimal temperatures had a greater effect on mortality than warmer ones. In Europe’s coldest regions, harsh winters reduced life expectancy by up to 24 months, while warmer areas like the Azores saw reductions of just 2 months. Overall, climate change has had a small impact in Northern Europe: life expectancy increased by about 1 month due to milder winters but decreased by half a month due to hotter summers. In Southern Europe, the effects were mixed: Atlantic regions gained up to 3 months, while Mediterranean-bordering areas lost up to 3 months. Economic growth maintained a modest effect on life expectancy, even in highly developed regions. Assuming unchanged vulnerability, due to warmer winters life expectancy should be increased by a month, but regions south of the Alps this would be offset by higher heatwave-related deaths.
Published Version
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