Evolving patterns and drivers of waste plastic trade in key global economies

Abstract

This study examines the global waste plastic trade, impacted by China's import ban and the COVID-19 pandemic, using post-pandemic data to analyse trade flows and project future volumes via ridge regression. From 1988 to 2022, global waste plastic exports totaled approximately 255 million tons, with major contributions from high-income regions like Europe, Asia, and North America. China emerged as the primary importer, accounting for over 50 % of global imports. The analysis highlights the growing role of smaller European exporters and increased intra-regional trade, with economic factors and oil prices significantly influencing trade dynamics. The pandemic's impact on trade was minimal, maintaining steady export levels in countries like the US and Germany. Projections suggest a minimum global export of 8.1 million tons by 2030 under the GAP scenario. The study emphasises the complexity of waste plastic management and the importance of global cooperation, providing key insights for future research.