Abstract

We have been asked by the organizers of this Workshop ‘to freely express our views on the future development of Catalytic Science’. We shall obviously do so from a variety of backgrounds and biases. My experience stems from the world of industrial catalysis where over a 40 year period I had two different roles to play. As a working scientist, I had the good fortune to be an inventor of two major industrial processes one, a heterogeneous catalytic process for the production (via direct dehydrogenation) of higher linear alkenes useful for making biodegradable detergents and the other a homogeneous liquid phase process for the production of acetic acid via the carbonylation of methanol. Then later, as a Research Director, I guided research that led to several other commercial catalytic processes which included the one that is used for manufacturing the eminently successful Monsanto herbicide known as ‘Roundup’. Having enjoyed these successes as a scientist and research director, I decided to stray into the realm of prognostication about the future of catalysis. My first opportunity to go public in this role occurred in July 1990 when I was invited to give the opening plenary lecture at TOCAT I in Tokyo, the first of a new ongoing international series of conferences on catalysis organized by the 2000-member Catalysis Society of Japan. Some of what I will be presenting here is a review and further development of the embryonic thoughts first presented in Tokyo. Forecasting the future is difficult and hazardous in almost every field of human endeavour. The tendency, generally, is to extrapolate current trends but, unfortunately, this approach is very often incorrect. What I shall try to do is to develop a perspective about forecasting the future of catalysis that is highly pragmatic in its approach and is the antithesis of extrapolation. First, let us remind ourselves about the importance of catalysis. In the past few years several well-documented accounts have been given describing the financial, economic and societal impact of industrial catalysis and its criticality to our current quality of life. It ranks at or near the top of the list of critical technologies for modem society. In the U.S. the chemical and applied products industry ranks first

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