Evolutionary Shift of Insect Diapause Strategy in a Warming Climate: An Intra-Population Evidence from Asian Corn Borer.

Abstract

Herbivorous insects having variable numbers of generations annually depending on climate and day length conditions are increasingly breeding additional generations driven by elevated temperature under the scenario of global warming, which will increase insect abundance and result in more frequent damage events. Theoretically, this relies on two premises, i.e., either an evolutionary shift to facultative diapause for an insect behaving an obligatory diapause or developmental plasticity to alter voltinism productively for an insect with facultative diapause before shortening photoperiods inducing diapause. Inter-population evidence supporting the premise (theory) comes primarily from a model system with voltinism linked to thermal gradients across latitude. We examined the intra-population evidence in the field (47°24' N, 123°68' E) with Ostrinia furnacalis, one of the most destructive pests, on corn in Asia and Pacific islands. The species was univoltine in high latitudinal areas (≤46° N). Divergence of the diapause feature (obligatory and facultative) was observed within the field populations from 2016 to 2021. Warmer climates would provoke more facultative diapause individuals to initiate a second generation, which will significantly drive the population to evolve toward facultative diapause (multi-voltinism). Both divergent diapause and temperature must be considered for accurate prediction of phenology and population dynamics in ACB.