Abstract
Safe and effective evacuation is very important to reduce casualties after earthquakes. Given that evacuation is a checking process rather than a preselection process, evolutionary game theory can be used to better understand the crowd dynamics by analyzing the imitation effects in terms of individual interactions during evacuation. The key purpose of this paper was to construct an evolutionary game model of emergency evacuation of a teaching building at a university after an earthquake to search for the specific constraints necessary to reach the expected collective behaviors for orderly evacuation. We first analyzed the evacuation scenarios, including the environment of the teaching building, emergency degree of the earthquake and behaviors of the crowd. The related game players in the evacuation process were divided into three types, impulsive evacuees, calm evacuees and university staffs, and their payoff matrix was constructed according to the evacuation scenarios. Then, an evolutionary game model via the replicated dynamic system was created, and stable strategies were discussed. Next, we simulated eighteen evacuation scenarios with adjustment of the guiding authoritativeness, emergency degree, and group-oriented coefficient; the simulation results showed that the worst stable strategies can be avoided and the expected stable strategies can be obtained by adjusting the constraints, which are closely related to the corresponding management measures. Finally, the performance of the proposed model was verified by comparisons with the real videos and the conventional strategies.
Highlights
In recent years, the frequent occurrence of earthquakes has caused great casualties and property losses
To provide support to earthquake evacuation management, given the research studies in Table 1 and the expected behaviors/strategies (y in Figure 1) for efficient evacuation (x in Figure 1), the aim of our work was to model a threepopulation evolutionary game (z in Figure 1) for emergency evacuation after an earthquake and to contribute to decision-making by searching for the specific constraints that promote the game to evolve to the desired stability ({ in Figure 1), that is, the collective behaviors [29] for orderly evacuation expected by crowd evacuation managers
Guo et al.: Evolutionary Game of Emergency Evacuation After an Earthquake at a University: How to Promote Orderly Evacuation to exits after classes during normal times, an evacuation emergency caused by high crowd densities along with high seismic intensities, and individual/crowd behaviors during evacuations, to provide support for section III to identify the interactions among different players and their corresponding strategies in games
Summary
The frequent occurrence of earthquakes has caused great casualties and property losses. Research by Lindell et al arrived at a similar conclusion, and they proposed that emergency preparedness, such as preimpact training activities, is effective in increasing levels of adaptive behaviors [12] These findings only analyzed individual behaviors and how corresponding factors influence evacuation behaviors, but they did not pay much attention to the evacuation process and evacuation efficiency of different behaviors. To provide support to earthquake evacuation management, given the research studies in Table 1 and the expected behaviors/strategies (y in Figure 1) for efficient evacuation (x in Figure 1), the aim of our work was to model a threepopulation evolutionary game (z in Figure 1) for emergency evacuation after an earthquake and to contribute to decision-making by searching for the specific constraints that promote the game to evolve to the desired stability ({ in Figure 1), that is, the collective behaviors [29] for orderly evacuation expected by crowd evacuation managers.
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