Evolution of the global phosphorus trade network: A production perspective on resilience

Abstract

Global phosphorus (P) trade, whose resilience is crucial regarding food security globally, involves numerous risks. By combining complex network analysis (CNA) with information-based ecological network analysis (IENA), this study introduces an integrative method for analyzing the evolution of phosphorus trade networks (PTNs) globally from a production perspective, while focusing on the 1990–2020 period; it also provides a conceptual framework and indicators to assess PTN resilience based on that information. Results show that PTN resilience averaged 0.24 and fluctuated over time while being significantly influenced by phosphate fertilizer (PF) trade networks. PTNs exhibited an average redundancy of 4.54 and an average efficiency of 0.55. Various trade paths enabled countries in PTNs to maintain stable sources of import or export. PF had a more diversified trade path and a more balanced connectivity structure than those of phosphate rock (PR). A fluctuating PR share in the core countries’ trade resulted in resilience fluctuations; however, path diversity reduced the impact of shocks emanating from the core countries. Overall, this study highlights that global P management could be improved through more stable national policies of the core countries, improved international cooperation frameworks, and information transparency.