Abstract
In this study we investigated the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the organization, strength, and distribution of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) over the Indo-Pacific region for understanding El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The study is based on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission’s (TRMM) precipitation features dataset during boreal winters of 2001-02 to 2006-07. The results of time series of hot spot analyses show that MCSs are predominantly clustered in the Maritime Continent and West Pacific Regions, and are preferentially observed over ocean compared to land. The largest quantity of MCSs were observed to the south of the equator in January 2002, and the distribution of MCSs as a function of SST for these months peaked between 29-30° Celsius. MJO explains 11% to nearly 30% of the characteristics of MCSs in the Indo-Pacific. The percentage of MCSs over the ocean in January is larger when the MJO is in the active phase than the passive phase from the Indian Ocean to the West Pacific Region. The warm waters under the MCSs may be related to the coupled MJO process that convectively generate and maintain the storms. The effect of the MJO is strongest when it is located within the Maritime Continent region. The MJO analysis indicates that MCSs are more likely accompanied by westerly winds during the eastward propagation of the MJO and the westerly wind bursts have been linked to the onset of El Nino in the Pacific.
Highlights
Mesoscale convective systems produce heavy rainfall organized at larger scales and play an overarching role in intraseasonal and interannual climate variability in the IndoPacific region
In order to investigate the climatology of the study region the Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) counts, kernel density distribution, and hot spots are used for all boreal winter months (December -February) from 2001-02 to 200607
An extensive literature review showed that no previous study considered to investigate the climatology of mesoscale convective systems and their intraseasonal to interannual variability in the Indo-Pacific region
Summary
Mesoscale convective systems produce heavy rainfall organized at larger scales and play an overarching role in intraseasonal and interannual climate variability in the IndoPacific region. The central hypothesis of the research is that mesoscale convective systems contribute to extreme precipitation locally, are organized by the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which is in turn connected to El Nino development and drought in the Maritime Continent (Fig. 1). The mesoscale convective systems are in turn organized at the regional scale by intraseasonal climate variability manifested by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. In the light of these interacting climate phenomena the major objectives of this study are as follows: (i) examine the role and influence of land-sea-atmosphere interactions on the overall climate of the Indo-Pacific region, and (ii) diagnose the intraseasonal variability of precipitation features over the Indo-Pacific region.
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