Evolution of Global Crude Oil Trade Network Structure and Resilience

Abstract

Existing studies mainly focus on the evolutionary characteristics of the global crude oil trade network under a steady state, neglecting to analyze the competition and cooperation among countries regarding crude oil as a strategic resource from a spatial–geographical perspective. There needs to be more studies analyzing the impact of crude oil trade disruptions on the resilience of the whole network from the perspective of supply and demand shocks in different influential countries, thus promoting the sustainable development of the global economy and the transition to green energy. Based on the global crude oil trade data from 2007 to 2020, this paper examines the structural evolution of the trade network using a complex network approach and simulates the impact of disruptions on its resilience. Results indicate that the global crude oil trade network expands and becomes more closely connected, and five major trade groups have been formed. Further simulation reveals that the impact of national disruptions on global trade resilience is not linear. Moreover, the influence from core countries is significantly higher than peripheral countries.