Abstract
Population is a major production factor in rural development in China, which makes the study of rural population distribution patterns at different times and the factors influencing the population distribution an important foundation for understanding the issues in rural China and moving forward with the implementation of rural revitalization strategies. This paper analyzed the spatial evolution of the population in rural China based on population census data for the People’s Republic of China by county in 1990, 2000 and 2010. Applying the geographical detector method, this paper also delved into the contributing factors that influenced the distribution based on the natural, social and economic data, such as the potential crop productivity, the average slope, the urbanization rate and the time cost to reach the nearest cities. The results indicate that the migration of the population from the rural areas into the cities, which was a result of rapid urbanization, did not change the original population distribution in rural China significantly. The rural population was still concentrated in the eastern plains, basins and deltas, and the North China Plain and Sichuan Basin still house the bulk of rural residents, but the population density of rural residents in the North China Plain and Sichuan Basin decreased from 1990 to 2010. The rural population in China tended to be distributed around the cities. Seventy-four percent of the rural population lived in an area within a 60-minute driving distance from the surrounding cities. The areas with dense rural population were basically consistent with the locations of the current major urban agglomerations in China. The current distribution of the rural population in China was a result of natural, social and economic conditions and location factors. Among them, natural factors such as the potential crop productivity and the degree of surface fragmentation had the most significant influence.
Highlights
The development of urbanization in China has accelerated since the implementation of the reform and opening-up
Based on the relevant population distributions theories and the particularities of rural areas, this paper uses natural, socioeconomic and location indicators with the geographical detector method to explore the key factors that shape the spatial patterns of the rural population in China
If the independent variables and the dependent variables are both numerical, after the discretization processing of the independent variable to convert it into a categorical variable, the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variable constructed by the geographical detector method is more reliable than a classic econometric regression [35]
Summary
The development of urbanization in China has accelerated since the implementation of the reform and opening-up. The research has mainly focused on the changes in rural population and its driving factors [22], the changes in rural labor [23,24,25,26], the decline in the rural population caused by rural-urban migration and the reasons for this migration [3, 27, 28] These studies often use typical rural regions as cases to argue that some rural areas experience dramatic rural population decline while others experience growth [22]. This paper explores the spatial evolution of China’s rural population to determine whether the rural-urban migration brought by rapid urbanization has changed the original spatial patterns of the rural population in China. Based on the relevant population distributions theories and the particularities of rural areas, this paper uses natural, socioeconomic and location indicators with the geographical detector method to explore the key factors that shape the spatial patterns of the rural population in China. The socioeconomic data, such as the GDP of the primary industry in the county, the regional industrial production value, and the average net income of the rural residents, come from the “China statistical yearbook for region economy 2011”
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
