Abstract
The two dominant perspectives in cross-national comparative criminology (modernization and conflict) make competing predictions about the convergence of national crime rates over time. The modernization perspective predicts convergence in crime rates for all nations of the world whereas the conflict perspective predicts growing divergence between industrializing poor nations and highly industrialized rich nations. I also explore an intermediate possibility: that convergence is limited mostly to nations of the industrial elite. I use econometric methods to test for convergence and divergence in homicide victimization rates for 34 nations from 1956 to 2000. My results show the most support for an elite convergence model: although there are several examples of crime convergence among the nations in this study over time, all of these examples are drawn from the wealthy, highly industrialized nations.
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