Evaluation of Yield Prediction Performance of DSSAT CSM-CERES-Wheat Model in Some Bread Wheat Varieties

Abstract

Product simulation programs with DSSAT are based on the principle of predicting the potentials of yield and other phenological parameters of wheat varieties with different fertilizer application doses in different climatic and soil conditions. For this purpose, different wheat varieties (Bayraktar, Tosunbey) were used in order to test the use of the DSSAT simulation model in semi-arid conditions in the Ikizce experimental area of the Haymana District of Ankara Province, Field Crops Central Research Institute, during the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 periods. The aim of this study is to predict yield in wheat varieties (Bayraktar, Tosunbey) using CERES and CROPGRO sub-models of DSSAT v.4.7.5 simulation model. In the study, the model was run at different nitrogen application doses (0, 6, 12, 18 kg/da) to reveal the yield prediction potential of the wheat cultivars in semi-arid conditions. For the calibration of the model, the grain yield, plant height and Leaf area index (LAI) data obtained were used in the first year of wheat development stage.The accuracy of the model, which was calibrated with the first year data, was tested with the second year data. For Bayraktar variety, the average measured yield obtained from different nitrogen dose applications (N0,N6,N18) for the 2017-2018 period is 373.3 kg/da, the simulated yield is 373.7 kg/da (N12 dose is neglected), the measured yield for 2018-2019 300. 5 kg/da, the simulated yield was found to be 291.3 kg/da.For the Tosunbey variety, the average yield measured for the 2017-2018 period was 370.0 kg/da, the simulated yield was 338.0 kg/da, the measured yield for the 2018-2019 year was 217.58 kg/da, and the estimated yield was 237.83 kg/da.