Evaluation of the EDPs’ Cultural Assimilation Based on Epidemic Model

Abstract

In recent UN resolutions, EDPs are defined as refugees. Based on the systematic effects caused by EDPs, we propose an optimization model to predict the number of EDPs and protect the traditional culture of EDPs. Based on the basis of our proposed model, we can demonstrate the importance of the policy proposed based on our model.Firstly, we use climate phenomena such as sea-level rise and soil desertification to determine the countries at risk. Kiribati and Mongolia are studied in our model. We propose to use the power-law distribution to calculate the number of EDPs in the countries at risk. Through the qualitative analysis, it shows that “national collective migration to countries with similar cultural backgrounds” can effectively reduce the risk of cultural loss.Secondly, in terms of cultural protection, we use SIS and SEIR infectious disease models to simulate the process of cultural assimilation and budget the time needed for cultural assimilation of EDPs. We also revised the policy according to the index of refugee and the speed of cultural assimilation. (1) international organizations should give appropriate economic assistance to the recipient countries. (2) the recipient country should take strong cultural protection measures when EDPs start to migrate. (3) the recipient country should try its best to provide jobs to EDP without harming the interests of its own people.Finally, we proposed an optimization model to verify that when the policy is implemented, the cultural protection has been greatly improved. By comparing with the natural state of the policy not adopted, the importance of the optimization model of human rights and cultural protection based on EDPs proposed by us is illustrated.