Abstract
The Zambezi River basin is the fourth largest basin in Africa and the largest in southern Africa, comprising 5% of the total area of the continent. The basin is extremely vulnerable to climate change effects due to its highly variable climate. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on streamflow in one of the sub-basins, the Kabombo basin. The multi- global climate model projections were used as input to the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model for simulation of streamflow under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. The model predicted an annual streamflow increase of 85% and 6% for high uncertainty and strong consensus, respectively, under RCP 8.5. The model predicted a slightly reduced annual streamflow of less than 3% under RCP 4.5. The majority of simulations indicated that intra-annual and inter-annual streamflow variability will increase in the future for RCP 8.5 while it will reduce for the RCP 4.5 scenario. The predicted high and moderate rise in streamflow for RCP 8.5 suggests the need for adaptation plans and mitigation strategies. In contrast, the streamflow predicted for RCP 4.5 indicates that there may be a need to review the current management strategies of the water resources in the basin.
Highlights
Climate change effects have exacerbated the variable climate of Southern Africa
The generated new knowledge for streamflow variability under various scenarios could be useful for future water resources planning for the basin and contribute The ZatmowbardeszwiatRerirveseourrcbesamsainnage(mZeRnt Bstr)atehgiaessanadna raevrieewaofopfol1ici,e3s.20,000 km2, making it the fourth largest river2.bMaasteirnialianndAMeftrhiocdas and the largest transboundary river in southern Africa that is shared by ei2g.1h
Kabompo River basin (KRB) was delineated with 255 hydrological response units (HRU), 102 sub-basins and a total area of 72,087 km2 using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model
Summary
Climate change effects have exacerbated the variable climate of Southern Africa. The current status of climate change impacts on hydrology calls for evaluation to enhance effective planning. The Zambezi River basin (ZRB) comprises 13 sub-basins, one of which is the Kabompo basin. The evaluation of the potential impact of climate change on future streamflow regime for Kabompo River basin is a prerequisite for water resources planning [1]. The basin has inadequate and inaccurate information on temporal and spatial variability of streamflow, especially regarding water availability, quality and maintenance of environmental flows [2]. The most common and widely used tools for understanding the historical climate conditions and projecting possible future climate changes under different emission scenarios are global circulation models (GCMs) [3]. The GCMs are described as mathematical representations of physical, biological and chemical fundamentals of the climate system [4]
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