Evaluation of scenarios for improving energy efficiency and reducing exhaust emissions of a passenger car fleet: A methodology

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Improvement of energy efficiency and exhaust emissions reduction are environmental targets of utmost importance in the transport and traffic sectors. The literature suggests that there is a need for the development of a general methodology that can be used to evaluate and compare scenarios for the reduction of the environmental impact caused by fossil-fuel usage of passenger car fleet. We develop such a methodology, which assesses the external costs of four combustion products (carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons) as well as fuel consumption costs. In this study, we applied this methodology to evaluate and compare five scenarios. The methodology was tested for the case of the Serbian passenger car fleet. Serbia was selected as a country with the passenger car fleet primarily consisted of fossil-fuelled passenger cars. In addition, Serbia is a country in which rising demand for cars is met through the import of second-hand cars. We found that the only scenario which could result in a positive solution of the given problem is the “reduction of the total number of passenger cars in the fleet of a country” scenario. Moreover, the purchase of new cars and import of second-hand cars cannot result in significant positive effects. The results obtained for the case of Serbia can provide an important insight into the environmental effects of passenger car fleets for countries primarily using fossil-fuelled cars, in which the demand for cars is met mostly through the import of second-hand cars.