Evaluation of renewable energy policies in Turkey with sectoral electricity demand forecasting.

Abstract

Energy is an essential requirement for sustainable development, society, and the world. Turkey has been trying to increase the use of renewable sources in electricity energy production with the incentive policies it has implemented in recent years. Accordingly, in the 2019-2023 Strategic Plan of the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, targets to increase the installed capacity of renewable energy sources have been determined. In this context, this article examines fort the first time, the effect of installed capacity of renewable energy sources on sectoral electricity demand. Thus, the study aims to evaluate the renewable energy policies implemented in Turkey. For this purpose, firstly, sectoral electricity demands were estimated for the period 1988-2017 using the autoregressive distributed lag bound testing approach. Then, forecasts were made for the period 2019-2023 with the econometric simulation method. The findings show that the Installed Capacity variable significantly and negatively affects electricity demand in all sectors in the long run. According to the forecast results made in the second stage of the study, it was observed that the higher the increase rate in the installed capacity of renewable energy sources, the faster the electricity demand would decrease. According to these results, Turkey needs to increase the share of renewable energy sources in electricity production in terms of economic and environmental sustainability.