EVALUATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY ALTERNATIVES USING MACBETH AND FUZZY AHP MULTICRITERIA METHODS: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Energy is a critical foundation for economic growth and social progress. It is estimated that 70% of the world energy consumption could be provided from renewable resources by the year 2050 so that renewable energy which is the inevitable choice for sustainable economic growth, for the harmonious coexistence of human and environment as well as for the sustainable development is very important for the humanity. The aim of this chapter is to evaluate the renewable energy alternatives as a key way for resolving the Turkey’s energy-related challenges because of the fact that Turkey’s energy consumption has risen dramatically over the past three decades as a consequence of economic and social development. In order to realize this aim, the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) is used for the evaluation of renewable energy alternatives. According to MAUT, the overall evaluation U(x) of an object x is defined as a weighted addition of its evaluation with respect to its relevant value dimensions. In the evaluation phase, 4 main attributes and 17 sub-attributes are used to determine the most appropriate renewable energy alternative among Solar, Wind, Hydropower, Biomass, and Geothermal.

The contribution of renewable resources in meeting Turkey's energy-related challenges

Sustainability has gained tremendous importance and has been an important issue both for policy makers and practitioners. Realizing that the resources on the earth are limited, renewable energy alternatives have flourished and started to replace the conventional energy alternatives. Energy planning using different energy alternatives, for the long term becomes a vital decision. In this study, fuzzy multi criteria decision- making methodologies, axiomatic design (AD) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) are utilized for ranking both renewable and conventional energy alternatives. In the first phase AHP is utilized to determine the importance of the criteria and in the second phase fuzzy AD is used to evaluate the experts’ assessments. In the case study, both conventional and renewable energy alternatives are evaluated according to technical, economical, air quality and site selection perspectives. The case study results show that the renewable energy alternatives (biomass, geothermal power and wind) perform better than the conventional energy resources.

The main objective of this study is to develop a highly predictive model to forecast Turkey’s energy consumption. The model has developed based on regression functions and Jaya algorithm which is a new and powerful optimization algorithm. Linear, exponential, hyperbolic and quadratic functions were used as regression functions. Gross domestic product, population, import and export data have been used as independent variables in the model. The accuracy of Jaya method was investigated using error criteria such as average relative error, root mean square error, and mean absolute error. As a result of the analysis, it was concluded that the quadratic function developed with Jaya algorithm performed better than the others. After the optimal configurations have been defined, a scenario has been developed to estimate Turkey's future energy consumption values. The obtained results are compared with the previous studies. According to the obtained results, primary energy consumption of Turkey can be modeled using the proposed model and Jaya can be used to predict Turkey's future energy need.

This paper examines the dual efficiency of bioenergy, renewable hydro energy, solar energy, wind energy, and geothermal energy for selected OECD countries through an integrated model with energy, economic, environmental, and social dimensions. Two questions are explored: Which renewable energy alternative is more dual efficient and productive? Which renewable energy alternative is best for a particular country? Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used for the efficiency evaluation, and the global Malmquist productivity index is applied for productivity analysis. Results indicate bioenergy as the most efficient renewable energy alternative with a 20% increase in average efficiency in 2016 compared to 2012. Renewable hydro energy, wind energy, and solar energy show a 17.5%, 16%, and 11% increase, respectively. The average efficiency growth across all renewable energy alternatives signifies major advancement. Country performance in renewable energy is non-monolithic; therefore, they should customize their renewable energy portfolio accordingly to their strengths to enhance renewable energy efficiency. Renewable hydro appears to have the most positive productivity change in 2016 compared to 2012, while solar energy regressed in productivity due to its scale inefficiency. All renewable energy alternatives have relatively equal average pure efficiency change. The positive trend in efficiency and productivity provides an incentive for policy makers to pursue further development of renewable energy technologies with a focus on improving scale efficiency.

The aim of the present article is to investigate Turkey's energy demand and the contribution of domestic energy sources to energy consumption. Turkey, the 17th largest economy in the world, is an emerging country with a buoyant economy challenged by a growing demand for energy. Turkey's energy consumption has grown and will continue to grow along with its economy. Turkey's energy consumption is high, but its domestic primary energy sources are oil and natural gas reserves and their production is low. Total primary energy production met about 27% of the total primary energy demand in 2005. Oil has the biggest share in total primary energy consumption. Lignite has the biggest share in Turkey's primary energy production at 45%. Domestic production should be to be nearly doubled by 2010, mainly in coal (lignite), which, at present, accounts for almost half of the total energy production. The hydropower should also increase two-fold over the same period.

Multi-criteria evaluation of renewable energy alternatives for electricity generation in a residential building

The variation in cost to develop renewable energy resources and the interest from stakeholders to consider various evaluating criteria before implementing renewable energy alternatives is attracting interest from researchers. Though cost is the leading factor to be considered for the selection of renewable energy alternatives, it is also equally important to address other criteria such as useful life of the project, operation and maintenance of the given alternatives, the impact of alternatives to the society and other factors. The number of alternative renewable energy resources to be considered and the number of evaluating criteria depends on the involvement of various stakeholders. This paper focuses on developing renewable energy alternative resources evaluating model considering multiple criteria. The proposed model optimize each renewable energy alternative resources considering cost as prime factor and evaluate the alternatives under different criteria using Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) method for generating comprehensive ranking for all alternatives. The model has been tested based on a region having a demand of 620 MWh per year. Five alternative renewable energy resources have been evaluated based on six criteria. The alternative which includes a combination of wind to supply 72.58% and biomass to supply 27.42% of energy requirement ranked as the best option considering all criteria. The model can also be extended to any regions taking into account the local data and availability of resources for the selected areas.

The importance of renewable energy is increasing both with the inadequacy of traditional energy resources and environmental awareness. Turkey has a large potential for renewable energy sources, and utilizing the potential is an inevitable choice for increasing its self-sufficiency with an environmentally friendly way. Therefore, evaluation of renewable energy alternatives for the country and determination of the most suitable renewable energy alternative are important issues to make reasonable energy investment plan. In this study, we evaluate the renewable energy alternatives of Turkey using Modified Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. Renewable energy alternatives considered in the study are hydro, wind, solar, biomass and geothermal energy. Four main criteria and eight sub criteria are used to evaluate five renewable energy alternatives. The obtained results indicate that solar energy is the best alternative, and wind energy is the second best alternative for Turkey. The conclusion reached by this study is also support successful realization of the Vision 2023 energy targets.

In this study, it is aimed to determine the most suitable renewable energy alternatives that can be used in blockchain investments. In this context, firstly, a wide literature review is made and 6 different criteria that could have an impact on this decision are determined. The analysis process of the consists of two different stages. Firstly, the significance levels of these criteria are calculated with the help of interval type-2 (IT2F) decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL)-analytical hierarchy process (ANP) (DANP) method. According to the analysis results obtained, it has been determined that continuity in energy supply and legal conditions are the most important criteria. Hence, it is recommended that while choosing among renewable energy alternatives, it is necessary to pay attention to the legal regulations in the country. Another important point is that attention should be paid to this issue in renewable energy sources to be selected in order to have sustainable benefit from energy in blockchain technologies. On the other hand, in the second phase of the analysis process of the study, 5 different renewable energy alternatives are listed according to their suitability in blockchain technology. In this process, the IT2 fuzzy VIseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) approach has been taken into consideration. As a result, it is concluded that wind and solar energy are the most suitable energy alternatives for this technology. Considering the results obtained, it is understood that countries that use blockchain technology should pay particular attention to wind and solar investments. In this regard, companies that use wind and solar energy with individuals or institutions using blockchain technology should be in cooperation. Thanks to these renewable energy alternatives, excess energy consumption resulting from the use of blockchain technology can be achieved with environmentally friendly energy sources. In other words, it will be possible to minimize the carbon emission problem that occurs with the use of this technology.

Turkey's energy consumption is low compared to its young population. However, energy consumption is rapidly increasing as a result of economic growth in recent years, a trend which is expected to continue. Accordingly, guaranteeing adequate energy supply for its growing economy remains at the top of the governmental agenda. While energy consumption is increasing, Turkey is becoming increasingly dependent on fossil fuel imports, especially in oil and natural gas. Increasing awareness toward the environmental issues, energy prices and lack of diversification are the most immediate threats. All these are significant threats to Turkish energy security and thus have become a greater focus of attention. In response, Turkish energy policy is developing into a multi-dimensional one, considering the primary goals of securing energy supply and increasing the level of diversification and decreasing environmental effects. Accordingly, these considerations have tended to endorse renewable energy. Renewable energy resources are emerging as one of the most efficient, indigenous and effective solutions for clean and sustainable energy development in Turkey. Its geographical location allows extensive use of most types of renewable sources. This paper analyzes the current and possible future contribution of renewable energy in Turkish energy policy, considering supply security, diversification and environmental concerns.

Present situation and potential role of renewable energy in Turkey

Forecasting energy consumption has an important role in planning energy strategies for both policy makers and related organizations in any country. In this study, coal, oil, natural gas, renewable and total energy consumption data for 1970-2015 is used to forecast energy consumption of Turkey for the next 25 years, using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The ARIMA models are determined to be ARIMA(1, 1, 1) for coal consumption, ARIMA (0, 1, 0) for oil consumption, ARIMA (0, 0, 0) for natural gas consumption, ARIMA (1, 1, 0) for renewable energy consumption and ARIMA (0, 1, 2) for total energy consumption. The results indicate that Turkey's energy consumption will continue to increase by the end of 2040. Consumption of coal, oil, natural gas, renewable energy and total energy will continue to increase at an annual average rate of 4.87 %, 3.92 %, 4.39 %, 1.64 % and 4.20 %, respectively in the next 25 years.

Exploring renewable energy pricing with analytic network process — Comparing a developed and a developing economy

In recent years, high energy costs, increases in carbon emissions, and concerns about energy supply security have led countries to prioritize renewable energy sources in their sustainable energy policies. The selection and ranking of alternative renewable energy sources is a critical issue in establishing an effective energy policy and ensuring environmental improvement at the national and global levels. This study evaluates Turkey’s best renewable energy options using the institutional fuzzy assessment based on distance to mean solution (IF-EDAS) method and aims to find Turkey’s best renewable energy alternative. The decision model alternatively uses wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, wave, hydroelectric, and hydrogen energy options. According to the study’s empirical findings, while the best alternative renewable energy source for Turkey is solar energy, the best criterion in terms of criteria evaluation is “Technology Maturity”. The study also carried out sensitivity analysis, and the results were shared.