Evaluation of reliability of complex engineering systems using risk acceptance criteria

Abstract

The reliability evaluation of gas pipeline systems is one of the most important tasks, since the safety of gas supplies determines the reliable operation of the whole system.Purpose: This paper presents the evaluation methodology based on the risk acceptance criteria established in accordance with the current rules and standards.Methodology: A three-component methodology is used to evaluate the reliability level of gas pipeline systems. It is implemented by creating a model of failure consequences, which accounts for environmental conditions and pipeline properties. Acceptable probabilities of the pipeline failure are determined using the risk theory. Based on these data, the model is designed to assess the gas transport reliability in the pipeline system with regard to failure probabilities and hydraulic characteristics.Research findings: The reliability level of the system is determined using the acceptable failure probability. The obtained reliability is compared with that of the real pipeline system. The best procedure is proposed to maintain and improve the system reliability.