Evaluation of OSPM against air quality measurements in Brazil – the case study of Fortaleza, Ceará

Abstract

ABSTRACT The contribution of vehicle emissions to air pollution is considered a large environmental and health problem in big Brazilian cities caused, among other factors, by slow renewal of the old vehicle fleet. Brazilian studies usually only consider traffic-related issues in transportation analysis, with minor assessments of emissions and close to non-existent assessment of air quality. On this background, this research aimed to calibrate and evaluate the Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM®) to Brazilian conditions by implementing Brazilian emission factors. The urban background concentrations were modeled with the Urban Background Model (UBM) as part of the air quality system (THOR–AirPAS). In this case, we used meteorological data from a ground meteorological station outside Fortaleza processed by meteorological pre-processor and regional background concentrations from the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) as input to UBM. New air quality measurements were collected in busy streets of the city of Fortaleza during the year of 2017. The study collected samples of daily NO2 and PM10 concentrations to evaluate OSPM daily estimations. In addition, a transportation travel demand model (TRANUS) has been calibrated to the case study area with observed traffic data collected, in order to provide Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) as inputs to OSPM®. Two sets of emission factors were evaluated. Official Brazilian emission factors were applied to OSPM®, as well as adjusted emission factors derived in the project based on calibration that were higher than the official emission factors. Data showed that concentrations are significantly influenced by meteorological factors (such as temperature, wind speeds, wind directions), and especially precipitation for PM10 concentrations. OSPM® simulated results showed concentration levels and patterns close to air quality measurements with default emission factors and calibrated emission for UBM but large underestimations if official emissions were used for both UBM and OSPM. Implications: Busy urban streets in Brazilian cities with intense flow of diesel vehicles (such as buses and trucks) can significantly increase air pollution, especially for NO2 and PM10. With OSPM calibrated and evaluated to Brazilian conditions, the model system can be used by authorities to assess the impact of policy measures, such as vehicle access restrictions in Low Emission Zones, in order to consider not only traffic related issues, but also air pollution due to mobile sources with outdated emission technologies.