Evaluation of New Control Structures for Regulating the Great Lakes System: Multiscenario, Multireservoir Optimization Approach

Abstract

AbstractWater levels in the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence system located in northeastern North America are critically important to the Canadian and U.S. economies. Water managers are concerned that this system, which is currently managed by control structures at the outlets of Lakes Superior and Ontario, is not able to cope with the highly uncertain impacts of climate change. In particular, the frequency of extreme water levels throughout the system might be substantially increased. This study provides an exploratory conceptual analysis to determine the extent that new control structures at the outlet of Lake Huron or Erie (or both) and corresponding excavation along the St. Clair or Niagara River (or both) might mitigate the risks posed by future extreme water supply scenarios. Multilake parametric rule curves were developed to regulate systems enabled with these new control structures as a whole. Multiple stochastic water supply sequences were adopted that represented different future extreme climate scenari...