Laurentian Great Lakes Hydrology and Lake Levels under the Transposed 1993 Mississippi River Flood Climate

Abstract

The Laurentian Great Lakes are North America's largest water resource, and include six large water bodies (Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, Ontario, and Georgian Bay), Lake St. Clair, and their connecting channels. Because of the relatively small historical variability in system lake levels, there is a need for realistic climate scenarios to develop and test sensitivity and resilience of the system to extreme high lake levels. This is particularly important during the present high lake level regime that has been in place since the late 1960s. In this analysis, we use the unique climate conditions which resulted in the 1993 Mississippi River flooding as an analog to test the sensitivity of Great Lakes hydrology and water levels to a rare but actual climate event. The climate over the Upper Mississippi River basin was computationally shifted, corresponding to a conceptual shift of the Great Lakes basin 10̊ west and 2̊ south. We applied a system of hydrological models to the daily meteorological time series and determined daily runoff, lake evaporation, and net basin water supplies. The accumulated net basin supplies from May through October 1993 for the 1993 Mississippi River flooding scenario ranged from a 1% decrease for Lake Superior to a large increase for Lake Erie. Water levels for each lake were determined from a hydro-logic routing model of the system. Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Erie were most affected. The simulated rise in Lakes Michigan and Huron water levels far exceeded the historically recorded rise with both lakes either approaching or setting record high levels. This scenario demonstrates that an independent anomalous event, beginning with normal lake levels, could result in record high water levels within a 6- to 9-month period. This has not been demonstrated in the historical record or by other simulation studies.