Evaluation of marginal abatement cost and potential reduction in China's industrial carbon emissions: A quadratic directional output distance function approach

Abstract

As a relevant indicator for quantifying the value of carbon emissions, the marginal abatement cost (MAC) of carbon emissions has received increasing attention from academics and policymakers. This study uses a quadratic directional output distance function to analyse the technical efficiency, potential emission reduction and shadow prices of China's industrial carbon emissions. The results show that the technical efficiency of China's industry gradually decreased during the sample period. From the perspective of regions with different carbon intensity and industrial output, regions with lower carbon intensity and higher industrial output gradually closed to the optimal frontier for the technology use level and had relatively high technical efficiency. Rising technical inefficiency and carbon emissions led to a potential emission reduction that also exhibits an upwards trend. In addition, the MAC of industrial carbon emissions exhibits a U-shaped trajectory, with 2011 as the turning point. Generally, in recent years, regions with lower carbon intensity and those with higher industrial output have a relatively high MAC for industrial carbon emissions. The empirical findings reveal that a carbon emission reduction policy should be formulated and targeted to each province, and the principle of ‘easy before difficult’ can be followed to promote emission reduction.