Evaluation of hydrologic and hydraulic models for real-time flood forecasting use in the Yangtze River catchment

Abstract

A key component of the Yangtze River Flood Control and Management Project is the development of an integrated real-time flood forecasting system to improve the reliability, accuracy and lead times of forecast flood discharges and flood levels along the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Central to the flood forecasting system is the use of appropriate hydrologic and hydraulic models. As part of the hydrologic and hydraulic model evaluation and selection process, a comprehensive comparative study was carried out for five well established hydrologic models and three well established hydraulic models to assess their performance and suitability for use in real-time forecasting in the Yangtze River catchment. The model evaluations were undertaken using common data sets and technical performance criteria specified in the Chinese National Standards for Flood Forecasting Models. This paper describes how the different hydrologic and hydraulic model performances were evaluated and presents the findings on their suitability for use in the Yangtze River flood forecasting system.