Evaluation of future land-use planning initiatives to shoreline stability of Egypt’s northern Nile delta

Abstract

An analysis of beach morphodynamics and relative vulnerability to erosion processes and sea inundation within the Nile delta’s lower coastal plain was performed as a basis for evaluation of future planning initiatives undertaken by the National Centre for Planning State Land Uses (NCPSLU). The conceptual management plans incorporate a variety of land-use plans including residential, recreational, industrial, agricultural, harboring, fish farming, and placer sand mining. Appropriateness of shores fronting the planned land uses is assessed in the present study by applying the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) approach, which depends primarily on a variety of variables that affect beach stability of the proposed plans. These variables are prominent morphologic features, shoreline erosion or accretion rates, sea-level rise, beach type (dissipative, reflective, or rhythmic bar), and oceanographic conditions (tidal range and mean wave height). Results disclosed that not all of the examined delta coastlines are equally vulnerable to beach erosion (ranging from relatively low to highly susceptible). However, the most serious threat is that the relatively stable coastlines lying close to nodal points are likely to be affected by erosion due to net sediment transport reversals heading eastward or westward which eventually may require remedial protection. Future planning of the unprotected highly vulnerable and low-elevated subsiding zones, such as Manzala lagoon barrier, requires effective mitigation measures. Quarrying of Abu Khashaba beach, as an example, for mineral mining placers (at Abu Khashaba) and other fish farming applications (possibly at Burullus lagoon barrier) is considered as a risk and is to be avoided as it accelerates eroding the natural protective barrier that fronts the Burullus lagoon.