Abstract
Few studies have focused on the combined impact of climate change, CO2, and land-use cover change (LUCC), especially the evaluation of the impact of LUCC on net primary productivity (NPP) in the future. In this study, we simulated the overall NPP change trend from 2010 to 2100 and its response to climatic factors, CO2 concentration, and LUCC conditions under three typical emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). (1) Under the predicted global pattern, NPP showed an increasing trend, with the most prominent variation at the end of the century. The increasing trend is mainly caused by the positive effect of CO2 on NPP. However, the increasing trend of LUCC has only a small positive effect. (2) Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, from 2090 to 2100, CO2 has the most significant positive impact on tropical areas, reaching 8.328 Pg C Yr−1. Under the same conditions, climate change has the greatest positive impact on the northern high latitudes (1.175 Pg C Yr−1), but it has the greatest negative impact on tropical areas, reaching −4.842 Pg C Yr−1. (3) The average contribution rate of LUCC to NPP was 6.14%. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, LUCC made the largest positive contribution on NPP (0.542 Pg C Yr−1) globally from 2010 to 2020.
Highlights
The speed at which plants in an ecosystem convert carbon dioxide and water into high-energy carbon compounds is the biomass produced by an ecosystem in a specific period of time [1,2]
The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) model was used to simulate the impact of climate change, carbon dioxide concentration changes, and land-use cover change (LUCC) factors on the net primary productivity (NPP) of the global terrestrial ecosystem under different scenarios in the future, as well as the spatial pattern in different regions
Since we have evaluated the performance of the IBIS model in our previous studies, the model was supposed to be reliable in NPP simulation in this study
Summary
The speed at which plants in an ecosystem convert carbon dioxide and water into high-energy carbon compounds is the biomass produced by an ecosystem in a specific period of time [1,2]. Climate change affects the vegetation and soil carbon pools by affecting NPP and soil respiration and changes the yield and decomposition rate of litter The impact of both on NPP has become a key component in the study of the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle [9]. The IBIS model was developed by Foley et al [26], which is a comprehensive terrestrial biosphere model and belongs to the new generation of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) It includes five modules: land surface process, canopy physiology, vegetation phenology, vegetation dynamics, and soil biogeochemistry. The IBIS model was used to simulate the impact of climate change, carbon dioxide concentration changes, and LUCC factors on the NPP of the global terrestrial ecosystem under different scenarios in the future, as well as the spatial pattern in different regions
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