Abstract
Large, complex coastal regions often require a combination of interventions to lower the risk of flooding to an acceptable level. In practice, a limited number of strategies are considered and interdependencies between interventions are often simplified. This paper presents the Multiple Lines of Defence Optimization System (MODOS)‐model. This quick, probabilistic model simulates and evaluates the impact of many flood risk reduction strategies while accounting for interdependencies amongst measures. The simulation includes hydraulic calculations, damage calculations, and the effects of measures for various return periods. The application and potential of this model is shown with a conceptual and simplified case study, based on the Houston‐Galveston Bay area. The analyses demonstrate how the MODOS‐model identifies trade‐offs within the system and shows how flood risk, cost, and impact respond to flood management decisions. This improved understanding of the impact of design and planning choices can benefit the discussions in finding the optimal flood risk reduction strategy for coastal regions.
Highlights
The Houston-Galveston Bay is prone to a variety of waterrelated hazards
The impact of storm surges can be reduced by implementing flood risk reduction measures, in the form of structural interventions like levees and storm surge barriers, or non-structural measures such as wetlands and oyster reefs
For flood protection systems purely consisting of structural elements, several studies have used probabilistic risk analysis to elaborate on the interdependence—how one measure affects the performance of the other—between structures (Courage, Vrouwenvelder, van Mierlo, & Schweckendiek, 2013; De Bruijn, Diermanse, & Beckers, 2014; Tsimopoulou, 2015). These studies have shown that a flood risk reduction measure can strongly influence the effectiveness of other elements of the flood defence system. This is true for both defences placed adjacent, protecting the same area, and for defences placed in multiple lines of defence, like a parallel system
Summary
The Houston-Galveston Bay is prone to a variety of waterrelated hazards. It is characterised by large variety in land use. For flood protection systems purely consisting of structural elements, several studies have used probabilistic risk analysis to elaborate on the interdependence—how one measure affects the performance of the other—between structures (Courage, Vrouwenvelder, van Mierlo, & Schweckendiek, 2013; De Bruijn, Diermanse, & Beckers, 2014; Tsimopoulou, 2015). These studies have shown that a flood risk reduction measure can strongly influence the effectiveness of other elements of the flood defence system.
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