Evaluation of China's marine sustainable development based on PSR and SDG14: Synergy-tradeoff analysis and scenario simulation

Abstract

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) proposed by the United Nations (UN) have become a global mission and task. However, with the SDG process now halfway through, the evaluation of SDG 14 has yet to be initiated. The study presents an evaluation system based on Pressure-State-Response and SDG 14, which evaluated the trend and spatial characteristics of CMSD in China from 2012 to 2021. In addition, the investigation estimated the scores of SDG 14 targets for 11 coastal provinces and analyses the synergies and trade-offs among SDG 14 targets. Finally, the trajectories of the CMSD and SDG 14 targets were simulated for different future scenarios. The main findings are as follows: 1) CMSD increased by 3.24 % from 2012 to 2021, accompanied by a decline in Response subsystem and an increase in both Pressure and State subsystems. 2) CMSD exhibited improvement in Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Hainan Provinces, while the most significant decline was observed in Liaoning Province. All coastal provinces in China were dominated by the subsystem of Pressure subsystem. 3) In terms of the scores of SDG 14's targets, the largest gap was found in the scores of SDG 14.5 which indicates that there are significant differences in the development of MPAs in different coastal provinces; and the smallest gap was found in SDG 14.1, which demonstrates their general concern for marine pollution management and reduction of pollution discharges in coastal areas. 4) The synergy-tradeoff analysis of the SDG 14 targets reveals four pairs that have consistently maintained synergy at the 5 % significance level, while only one pair has maintained trade-offs at the 5 % significance level. 5) The results of the scenario simulation suggest that SDG 14.2 and SDG 14.4 should follow the Management Strengthening Pathway, while other targets performed better under the Green Development Pathway. This study conducts a marine sustainable development assessment using China as a case study. It not only clarifies the development status of SDG 14 targets at both the national and regional levels in China but also offers valuable insights for international efforts to evaluate SDG 14.