Abstract

This paper describes a study in which the authors investigated a method for quantitatively evaluating the safety levels involved in train control operations in gale wind conditions and the risk of a train overturning. This effort involved estimating the distribution functions of wind velocity occurrence and wind temporal fluctuations. From these functions, the authors were able to calculate the probability of a gale occurring in a particular section during train operations. This calculated probability was then compared with the relative frequency observed at the site. A risk analysis of gale conditions was then conducted for several different train operational control rules.

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