Evaluation method of regional water resources carrying capacity based on semipartial connection number and dynamic subtraction set pair potential

Abstract

为准确和客观地评价区域水资源承载力，从水资源承载力评价样本与评价等级标准这一集对的复杂系统结构角度，应用集对分析半偏联系数和减法集对势方法，构造了定量反映和刻画集对联系数系统结构中联系数分量间微观运动的迁移率矩阵，提出了一种联系数分量值的修正方法，同时基于减法集对势和三角模糊数方法动态确定了差异度系数，构建了区域水资源承载力定量评价方法. 该方法在安徽省淮北市的应用结果表明：2011—2019年水资源承载力介于2~3级之间，承载力较差，系统态势总体上由偏反势向均势过渡，逐渐向好发展；在判别系统态势发展方面，基于普通减法集对势的联系数值由2011年的-0.279变化到2018年的-0.037，再到2019年的-0.218，基于半偏减法集对势的联系数值由2011年的-0.267变化到2018年的-0.035，再到2019年的的-0.207，说明两种方法均适用，但在确定评价等级值方面，评价效果后者更优，相对误差在1 % 以内，这与半偏减法集对势的物理解释意义更为深刻有关. 联系数系统结构中联系数分量间的微观运动结果表明，原联系数中最大分量的值会减小，其他两个分量的变化情况与该分量本身的大小、半偏联系数表示的增量与原联系分量的比例、被迁移的原联系分量的大小有关. 基于半偏联系数和动态减法集对势法可实现联系数的修正更新和差异度系数的动态确定，方法物理解释性强、评价结果准确可靠，为从系统结构成因机理角度准确判别水资源复杂系统所处状态及总体发展趋势提供了新的有效途径.;In order to accurately and objectively evaluate the level of regional water resources carrying capacity (WRCC), from the perspective of WRCC evaluation samples and evaluation level standards, set pair analysis semipartial connection number (SCN) and subtraction set pair potential (SSP) method were applied in this study. A mobility matrix which quantitatively reflects and describes the micro movement between the connection number components (CNCs) in the connection number system structure was constructed, along with a correction method on CNC values. Meanwhile, the difference coefficient was dynamically determined based on SSP and triangular fuzzy number method, and the quantitative evaluation method of regional WRCC was constructed. The application of this method in Huaibei City, Anhui Province showed that WRCC in 2011-2019 was between level 2-3, and the carrying capacity was relatively poor. The overall system situation transited from partial inverse potential to equilibrium potential, and gradually developed for the better. In judging the development of system situation, the connection number value based on SSP changed from -0.279 in 2011 to -0.037 in 2018 and then to -0.218 in 2019, and connection number value based on SSP changed from -0.267 in 2011 to -0.035 in 2018 and then to -0.207 in 2019. Results indicated that both methods were applicable, with the latter one better in determining the evaluation grade value and relative error < 1 %, which was related to the more profound physical interpretation of the semipartial SSP. The micro motion results between the CNCs in the structure of the connection number system showed that the value of the largest component in the original connection coefficient will decrease, and the changes of the other two components are related to the size of the component itself, the proportion of the increment represented by the SCN to the original CNCs, and the size of the migrated original CNCs. Based on the SCN and dynamic SSP method, the correction and updating of connection number and the dynamic determination of difference coefficient can be realized. The method has strong physical interpretation and accurate and reliable evaluation results, which provides a new and effective way to accurately distinguish the state and overall development trend of complex water resources system from the perspective of system structure and genetic mechanism.